System engineering trade study template

This is the playbook for
Contents:
  1. Trade Studies Module Space Systems Engineering, version ppt download
  2. Trade Studies Module Space Systems Engineering, version 1.0
  3. Trade study
  4. MATLAB and Simulink for Model-Based Systems Engineering

The mathematics of multiple objective decision analysis MODA requires that the weights depend on importance of the measure and the range of the measure walk away to stretch goal. A useful tool for determining priority weighting is the swing weight matrix Parnell et al. For each measure, consider its importance through determining whether the measure corresponds to a defining, critical, or enabling function and consider the gap between the current capability and the desired capability; finally, put the name of the measure in the appropriate cell of the matrix Figure 4.

The highest priority weighting is placed in the upper-left corner and assigned an unnormalized weight of The unnormalized weights are monotonically decreasing to the right and down the matrix. Swing weights are then assessed by comparing them to the most important value measure or another assessed measure. The swing weights are normalized to sum to one for the additive value model used to calculate value in a subsequent section. To help generate a creative and comprehensive set of alternatives that span the decision space, consider developing an alternative generation table also called a morphological box Buede, ; Parnell et al.

It is a best practice to establish a meaningful product structure for the system and to be reported in all decision presentations Figure 5. With objectives and measures established and alternatives having been defined, the decision team should engage SMEs, equipped with operational data, test data, simulations, models, and expert knowledge. Figure 6 provides a summary of the scores. Note that in addition to identified alternatives, the score matrix includes a row for the ideal alternative.

Trade Studies Module Space Systems Engineering, version ppt download

The ideal is a tool for value-focused thinking, which will be covered later. Next, one can transform the scores into a value table, by using the value functions developed previously. A color heat map can be useful to visualize value tradeoffs between alternatives and identify where alternatives need improvement Figure 7. The value component chart Figure 8 shows the total value and the weighted value measure contribution of each alternative Parnell et al.

Trade Studies Module Space Systems Engineering, version 1.0

The heart of a decision management process for system engineering trade off analysis is the ability to assess all dimensions of shareholder and stakeholder value. The stakeholder value scatter plot in Figure 9 shows five dimensions: unit cost, performance, development risk, growth potential, and operation and support costs for all alternatives. Each system alternative is represented by a scatter plot marker Figure 9.

As part of the assessment, the SME should discuss the potential uncertainty of the independent variables. The independent variables are the variables that impact one or more scores; the scores that are independent scores. Many times the SME can assess an upper, nominal, and lower bound by assuming low, moderate, and high performance.

Using this data, a Monte Carlo Simulation summarizes the impact of the uncertainties and can identify the uncertainties that have the most impact on the decision. Decision analysis uses many forms of sensitivity analysis including line diagrams, tornado diagrams, waterfall diagrams and several uncertainty analyses including Monte Carlo Simulation, decision trees, and influence diagrams Parnell et al.

Trade study

A line diagram is used to show the sensitivity to the swing weight judgment Parnell et al. Figure 10 shows the results of a Monte Carlo Simulation of performance value. Taking advantage of initial findings to generate new and creative alternatives starts the process of transforming the decision process from "alternative-focused thinking" to "value-focused thinking" Keeney This is the point in the process where the decision analysis team identifies key observations about tradeoffs and the important uncertainties and risks.

It is often helpful to describe the recommendation s in the form of a clearly-worded, actionable task-list in order to increase the likelihood of the decision implementation. Reports are important for historical traceability and future decisions. Take the time and effort to create a comprehensive, high-quality report detailing study findings and supporting rationale. Consider static paper reports augmented with dynamic hyper-linked e-reports. Research by Kahneman and Thaler and Sunstein has concluded that cognitive bias can seriously distort decisions made by any decision maker.

Understand the context

Both Kahneman an Thaler were awarded the Nobel prize for their work. The cause of this distortion is called the cognitive bias Glossary. These distorted decisions have contributed to major catastrophes, such as Challenger and Columbia. Other sources attributing major catastrophes are Murata, Nakamura, and Karwowski and Murata Kahneman and Thaler and Sunstein have identified a large number of individual biases, the most well-known of which is the confirmation bias. This bias states that humans have a tendency to interpret new evidence as confirmation of one's existing beliefs or theories.

Regarding mitigation of theses biases, there is general agreement that self-mitigation by the decision-maker is not feasible for most biases. Thaler and Sunstein provide methods to influence the mitigation of most biases. Considering cognitive biases in a systems engineering is discussed by Jackson , Jackson and Harel , and Jackson The primary theme of these references is that rational decisions are rarely possible and that cognitive bias must be taken into account.

Buede, D. The engineering design of systems: Models and methods.


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Edwards, W. Miles Jr. Von Winterfeldt. Keeney, R. Raiffa H. New York, NY: Wiley.


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Murata, A. Nakamura, and W. Parnell, G. May Driscoll, and D. The breadth and depth of the analysis should be scaled to both the scope of the decision and the needs and expectations of the decision maker s. Decision Analysis teams generally include a lead analyst with a suite of reasoning tools, subject matter experts with access to appropriate models and analytical tools and a representative set of end users and other stakeholders.

Overview of Systems Engineering Process

A robust Decision Analysis process acknowledges that the decision maker has full responsibility, authority and accountability for the decision at hand. Sound recommendations and action plans are the principal output of a well-framed and well-executed Decision Analysis process. The ability to drill down quickly from overall trade-space visualizations to detailed analyses that support the synthesized views is particularly useful to decision makers in understanding the basis of observations and conclusions.

Decision Analysis About The Decision Analysis process transforms a broadly stated decision opportunity into a traceable, defendable and actionable plan.

MATLAB and Simulink for Model-Based Systems Engineering

Results A well-executed decision analysis or trade-off analysis helps the Program Manager PM and the Systems Engineer understand the impact of various uncertainties, identify one or more course s of action that balance competing objectives and objectively communicate the results to decision makers. Activities and Products Decision Analysis teams generally include a lead analyst with a suite of reasoning tools, subject matter experts with access to appropriate models and analytical tools and a representative set of end users and other stakeholders.

Identify methods and tools to be used in the decision analysis. Develop decision criteria.