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As one of the oldest currencies on the planet, gold has embedded itself deeply into the psyche of the financial world. Nearly everyone has an opinion about the yellow metal, but gold itself reacts only to a limited number of price catalysts. Each of these forces splits down the middle in a polarity that impacts sentiment, volume and trend intensity:.
Market players face elevated risk when they trade gold in reaction to one of these polarities, when in fact it's another one controlling price action. For example, say a selloff hits world financial markets , and gold takes off in a strong rally. Many traders assume that fear is moving the yellow metal and jump in, believing the emotional crowd will blindly carry price higher. However, inflation may have actually triggered the stock's decline, attracting a more technical crowd that will sell against the gold rally aggressively.
Combinations of these forces are always in play in world markets, establishing long-term themes that track equally long uptrends and downtrends. For example, the Federal Reserve FOMC economic stimulus begun in , initially had little effect on gold because market players were focused on high fear levels coming out of the economic collapse. However, this quantitative easing encouraged deflation, setting up the gold market and other commodity groups for a major reversal. Gold finally topped out and turned lower in after reflation was completed and central banks intensified their quantitative easing policies.
VIX eased to lower levels at the same time, signaling that fear was no longer a significant market mover. Gold attracts numerous crowds with diverse and often opposing interests. Gold bugs stand at the top of the heap, collecting physical bullion and allocating an outsized portion of family assets to gold equities, options, and futures. These are long-term players, rarely dissuaded by downtrends, who eventually shake out less ideological players. In addition, retail participants comprise nearly the entire population of gold bugs, with few funds devoted entirely to the long side of the precious metal.
Gold bugs add enormous liquidity while keeping a floor under futures and gold stocks because they provide a continuous supply of buying interest at lower prices.
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They also serve the contrary purpose of providing efficient entry for short sellers , especially in emotional markets when one of the three primary forces polarizes in favor of strong buying pressure. They are especially popular in highly conflicted markets in which public participation is lower than normal. Take time to learn the gold chart inside and out, starting with a long-term history that goes back at least years. In addition to carving out trends that persisted for decades, the metal has also trickled lower for incredibly long periods, denying profits to gold bugs.
From a strategic standpoint, this analysis identifies price levels that need to be watched if and when the yellow metal returns to test them. This oscillation impacts the futures markets to a greater degree than it does equity markets , due to much lower average participation rates. CME offers three primary gold futures, the oz.
Average daily volume stood at Trade the gold market profitably in four steps. First, learn how three polarities impact the majority of gold buying and selling decisions. Second, familiarize yourself with the diverse crowds that focus on gold trading, hedging, and ownership. Third, take time to analyze the long and short-term gold charts, with an eye on key price levels that may come into play.
Finally, choose your venue for risk-taking , focused on high liquidity and easy trade execution. Accessed Feb. Federal Reserve Bank of St. CME Group.
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